ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

I maintain my Hold rating on ZTO Express after factoring in its below-expectations bottomline and the Chinese express delivery industry's policy developments. The company's 2Q25 earnings came in below consensus due to slower parcel volume growth, ASP declines, and heightened industry competition. But potential regulatory intervention, such as imposing a floor on delivery charges, could possibly lessen competitive pressures for ZTO in the medium term.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call August 19, 2025 8:00 PM ET Company Participants Huiping Yan - Chief Financial Officer Meisong Lai - Founder, Chairman & CEO Sophie Li - Investor Relations Director Conference Call Participants Aaron Luo - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Dan Luo - Guosen Securities Co., Ltd., Research Division Qianlei Fan - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Operator Good day, and welcome to the ZTO Second Quarter and Half Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call.

Parcel Volume Increased 16.5% to 9.8 Billion Adjusted Net Income Reached RMB2.1 Billion US$0.30 per Share Interim Dividend Announced SHANGHAI , Aug. 19, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO and SEHK: 2057), a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China ("ZTO" or the "Company"), today announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025 [1]. The Company grew parcel volume by 16.5% year over year while maintaining high quality of service and customer satisfaction.

ZTO eyes strong parcel volume growth for Q2 despite freight forwarding weakness and trade woes.

ZTO's Q1 costs surge 17.9%, straining profits as its current ratio slips to 1.05, signaling growing liquidity pressure.

ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?

ZTO Express' Q1 results missed expectations due to lower ASPs, reflecting intense price competition despite strong parcel volume growth. We maintain a HOLD rating, citing macroeconomic uncertainty, competitive pressures, and margin compression as reasons for caution. ZTO's operational efficiency, e-commerce partnerships, and reverse logistics growth are positives, but pricing pressure and margin risks persist.

The surge in operating expenses does not bode well for ZTO. A weak liquidity position also hurts the company's prospects.

ZTO's first-quarter 2025 revenues benefit from growth in parcel volume.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO ) Q1 2025 Results Conference Call May 20, 2025 8:30 PM ET Company Participants Sophie Li - Corporate Secretary and Director of Capital Markets Meisong Lai - Chairman and CEO Huiping Yan - CFO Conference Call Participants Ronald Keung - Goldman Sachs Qianlei Fan - Morgan Stanley Amy Han - Citigroup Operator Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sophie Li, Head of Capital Markets.

Parcels  Volume Increased 19.1%  to 8.5 Billion Adjusted Net Income Grew  1.6 % to RMB2.3 Billion Annual Volume Guidance Reiterated to Grow 20%-24% SHANGHAI , May 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO and SEHK: 2057), a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China ("ZTO" or the "Company"), today announced its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025[1]. The Company grew parcel volume by 19.1% year over year while maintaining high quality of service and customer satisfaction.

The trade war between the United States and China is expected to have an impact on ZTO's prospects in the to-be-reported quarter.

ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock?

ZTO Express' Q4 2024 results showed double-digit growth in revenue, gross profit, and adjusted net income, but parcel volume growth lagged behind the industry. Persistent strategic ambiguity and intense competition in China's express delivery market limit ZTO's potential for market re-rating, justifying a "hold" rating. Despite increasing ASP and higher margins, ZTO's market share declined, reflecting management's struggle to balance profitability and volume growth.

The surge in operating expenses does not bode well for ZTO. A weakening liquidity position also hurts the company's prospects.

I maintain a Hold rating for ZTO Express, following an evaluation of its outlook for the short term and long run. ZTOEF's ambitious volume growth target will likely be a drag on its '25 margins. In the mid-to-long term, the company might witness share gains and higher prices if insurance coverage for couriers becomes a requirement in China.