iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

On July 10, 2025, Sharkey, Howes & Javer disclosed in its latest 13F filing with the SEC that it added 50,817 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT -0.76%) in the second quarter, increasing its position in the exchange-traded fund by approximately $4.43 million. Its total position in the ETF had a market value of $9.47 million as of that date.

The TLT tracks the performance of long-term Treasury bonds, which appear to be losing their safe haven status. Recent weakness reflects the rising term premium owing to increased uncertainty over long-term interest rates. While posing a short-term risk, this rising term premium will increase long-term returns.

I see TLT's current price and nearly 5% yield as an attractive buying opportunity with limited long-term risk, despite concerns about U.S. debt. Lower interest rates are likely coming soon, either from Fed policy shifts or a recession, which could drive significant gains for TLT. Fears about U.S. government creditworthiness are overblown. The U.S. remains a superpower with multiple tools to manage debt and raise revenue.

The highly anticipated 'duration trade' in long bonds like TLT has underperformed despite the Fed lowering rates by 100bp since their peak. TLT's price hasn't rebounded as expected because its yield hasn't shifted enough, even though short-term rates have declined. In fact, YoY, long rates have risen! I've consistently favored the short end of the curve, particularly the SGOV ETF, which has provided reliable returns during this period. I continue to endorse it moving forward.

Diversification across bonds, senior loans, and CLOs is key to managing interest rate and credit risks in fixed-income portfolios. Market timing is extremely difficult; a balanced mix of fixed and floating-rate assets provides resilience regardless of rate direction. Distribution cuts in floating-rate CEFs are expected as rates fall but should be weighed against opportunity cost and risk-adjusted returns.

We see the fiscal risk premium as being priced in and think the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF can tap into lucrative longer-term key rates. Our short-term forecast for the yield curve is bullish flattening, TLT ETF's effective duration of 15.68 means the ETF might benefit from such a scenario. The on-the-run coupon base is set quite high for 20-year+ Treasuries. Therefore, we see short-term distributions being sustained at decent levels.

A war in the Middle East can have significant and multifaceted impacts on the United States. Typically, oil and gas would have the biggest impact with threats of supply disruptions.

Don Kaufman is bearish on the TLT ETF and Zoom Communications (ZM), but bullish on Intel (INTC) as the company prepares to restructure its manufacturing headcount. For his bearish TLT trade, Don cites government spending and the "big, beautiful bill" chances of passing in Congress as a possible selling event for the bond market.

The Simplify Bond Bull ETF is "151 proof" duration, and carries 3x the interest rate sensitivity of 20-year bond funds like TLT. This gives investors direct access to the "duration trade," where investors profit if interest rates fall, one of the investment theses behind TLT and other long bond funds. RFIX does pose a lot of risk, as it is very volatile and highly responsive to interest rate changes, making it a fund that investors should consider carefully.

The final trades of the day with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders.

Israel's airstrikes on Iran cause global market jitters, driving demand for safe-haven ETFs like GLD, TLT and UUP.

Buy-write ETFs like TLTW offer high yields but ugly mid-to-long term total returns due to rigid covered Call strategies, especially during volatile markets. I'm neutral to slightly bullish on TLT mid-to-long term, favoring active and flexible strategies over TLTW for superior risk-adjusted returns and adaptability. TLT's liquidity and relatively high implied volatility make it ideal for selling options, like a covered Call or a bull Put Spread.

TLT's recent sharp selloff has priced in some fiscal deficit concerns, with 2-20 yield spread widening to 100 bps, indicating the current yield has embedded higher term premium. TLT has reached a 5% yield, surpassing the S&P 500's 4.7% earnings yield due to the recent V-shaped rebound in the equity market, as the market priced out recession risk in 2025. With yields nearing the 5.25%–5.5% resistance range, dip buyers may step in as cooling inflation makes further Fed hikes unlikely.

Japan's bond market is causing ripples across global financial markets, with rising long-dated government bond yields threatening to trigger capital flight from the United States and unwind the popular carry trade strategy. The carry trade is a strategy where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies like the yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad.

SPY, THRO, EFV, TLT and QQQ led ETF inflows last week as investors poured in $23.5B despite rising yields and renewed U.S.-EU trade tensions.

Stocks and bond are telling different stories