Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)

Tesla (TSLA 6.18%) has dominated the electric vehicle (EV) market for over a decade, but the company's core business has begun to struggle. Rivian Automotive (RIVN 7.80%), meanwhile, is still in the early innings as an automaker, but is starting to hit important milestones.

After two straight quarters of positive gross margins, Rivian Automotive (RIVN 7.80%) returned to producing negative gross margins in the second quarter. This largely appears to be due to higher material costs, as China's cutback on the export of heavy rare-earth metals in the quarter disrupted supply chains and drove up the cost of electric vehicle (EV) production.

Zacks.com users have recently been watching Rivian Automotive (RIVN) quite a bit. Thus, it is worth knowing the facts that could determine the stock's prospects.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN -1.96%) is about to enter one of the most exciting growth spurts in its history. It plans to launch a new discounted model in as little as six months, with two more new models to follow soon after.

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Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) are changing hands for about the same price as a week ago, while the Nasdaq has retreated modestly.

Rivian stock price has held steady in the past few days, even as the company warned of a $100 million hit to its revenues after the relaxation of fuel economy rules by the Trump administration. RIVN was trading at $12.4 on Monday, higher than this month's low of $11.5.

Shares of Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) gained 2.65% over the past five trading sessions.

Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid all profit from selling regulatory credits to rivals who haven't sold enough EVs. Now, the Trump administration is gutting the credit scheme, and it's causing the three companies a serious headache.

Rivian's sideways trading has played out as expected, thanks to the ongoing macro and regulatory headwinds observed in the automotive/EV industry. Given the net tariff impact of "a couple of thousand dollars per unit" and the rollback of fuel economy rules, we may see the automaker's margins further disappoint ahead. Even so, we cannot deny RIVN's robust high-growth prospects from H1 '26 onwards, thanks to the upcoming launch of R2 and the substantially completed capacity expansion.

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The electric vehicle industry is facing headwinds from multiple angles -- including tariffs and an unpredictable political environment -- that are likely to impact all EV companies for the next several years. As a relatively young EV start-up, Rivian (RIVN 1.62%) certainly isn't immune to the turmoil.

RIVN's Q2 loss misses forecasts despite revenue gains from booming software and services, as the 2025 EBITDA loss outlook widens.

The tariff-driven market volatility has been rough on shares of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Nio Inc. (NYSE: NIO), which in April fell to a multiyear low of $3.02. Shares rebounded afterward, but they are now up 5.9% year to date, after pulling back modestly in the past week on news of slowing EV deliveries in China and production concerns. Nio recently reported a solid increase in deliveries in the first and second quarters, following the launch of its new mass-market brands, Onvo and Firefly. 24/7 Wall St. Key Points: Nio is one of the largest electric vehicle companies in China and the first to pioneer swappable battery packs. Due to new product launches and growing market share, 24/7 Wall St. projects significant gains for the stock by the end of the decade. If you’re looking for a megatrend with massive potential, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our “The Next NVIDIA” report. It includes a complete industry map of AI investments, including many small caps. The stock is now trading 8.5% higher than six months ago. Compared to a year ago, Nio’s share price is up 18.8%. However, Wall Street sentiment remains cautious, with less than half of analysts recommending buying shares. Their mean price target has crept up to $4.93, which is more than 6% higher than the current share price. Note that the high price target is all the way up at $8.12. Goldman Sachs upgraded its rating to Neutral back in June. Mizuho reiterated its Neutral rating on the shares, and it has a $3.50 price target. Barclays maintained its Underweight rating with a $3.00 target. But Morgan Stanley reiterated its Buy rating. There are some encouraging tailwinds for shareholders, though. The Chinese carmaker’s high-performance models, which feature a +600-mile range, have caught the eye of vehicle enthusiasts and investors, while addressing range anxiety issues by creating battery swap technology as a supplement to charging. Nio is a leading electric vehicle manufacturer in China and has been expanding its presence internationally. From a stock performance standpoint, Nio has been a tale of two stories. When shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 12, 2018, at $9.90, they struggled to build momentum. Not until the summer of 2020 did the stock begin to surge, gaining over 810% from June 26, 2020, to Feb. 9, 2021, when the stock hit its all-time high of $62.84. Shares have fallen considerably since then, but the long-term outlook remains strong. 24/7 Wall St. aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock’s prospects going forward, what growth we see in Nio stock for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for Nio’s stock price each year through 2030. Nio Stock Early-Stage Growth The following is a table of Nio’s revenues, operating income, and share price for its first few years as a public company. Year Share Price (End of Year) Revenues (CNY)* Operating Income* 2018 $5.39 4,951.2 (9,595.6) 2019 $3.45 7,824.9 (11,079.2) 2020 $40.00 16,257.9 (4,607.6) 2021 $16.70 36,136.4 (4,496.3) 2022 $7.87 49,268.6 (15,640.7) 2023 $4.71 55,617.9 (22,655.2) *Revenue and operating income in Billion CNY (1CNY=.14 USD) Now let’s take a look at Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) in the first few years it was a publicly traded company (here is Rivian’s stock price forecast): Year Share Price (End of Year) Revenues Operating Income 2021 $50.24 $5.67 ($0.71) 2022 $19.30 $7.14 ($2.27) 2023 $10.70 $7.83 ($3.19) 2024 $4.36 $9.00 ($2.99) Revenues and operating income in billions Both firms have shown similar revenue growth, but Rivian’s annual operating losses have been greater than those of Nio. Nio formerly contracted its manufacturing to Jianghuai Automobile Group, paying a fee for each vehicle produced in addition to fixed costs. The company has since acquired the factory from JAC. This agreement was beneficial for a young startup in a highly capital-intensive market. However, once scale is reached, the variable cost model has its downsides. Three Key Drivers of Nio’s Performance Product Portfolio Expansion and Growing Market Share New Model Launches: Similar to Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), Nio started off with a higher-end roadster and used the higher-end models to reinvest into more affordable, mass-market vehicles. Nio aims to push further into price-conscious markets while also adding options for its more premium customers. Add-On Services: With its battery swap technology, Nio plans to roll out an innovative battery-as-a-service solution for its customer base. The company plans to build over 4,000 swap stations by the end of 2025, with 1,000 of them located outside China. Increased Vehicle Deliveries and Market Penetration Growing NEV Adoption: The market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is on the rise in China. Nio expects vehicle deliveries in 2025 to double the output from 2023, which was roughly 165,000 units. This still only makes up about 2% of the Chinese NEV market and gives Nio plenty of roadway to gain market share for years to come. International Expansion: Nio’s strategy includes expanding its market presence outside China. The company built its first overseas battery-swap station in Hungary in 2022 and has several service centers and Nio accessory businesses throughout Europe. In December 2024, the company delivered 31,138 vehicles, good for a 72.9% year-over-year increase. In total, 221,970 vehicles were delivered in 2024, which was a year-over-year increase of 38.7% compared to 2023. Cumulative deliveries reached 671,564 as of Dec. 31, 2024. Advancements in Technology and Customer Experience Battery and Charging Solutions: Nio’s advancements in battery technology and charging solutions aim to alleviate range anxiety among consumers and help lower the overall cost of the vehicle by 15% to 30%. Focus on Younger Consumers: Nio’s leadership in EV technology will provide brand equity to younger generations of drivers who value enhanced technology packages. How Nio’s Next Five Years Could Play Out Year Revenue* Shares Outstanding P/S Est. 2025 97,052 2,050 mm 1x 2026 114,172 2,050 mm 1x 2027 134,643 2,050 mm 1.5x 2028 257,634 2,050 mm 1.5x 2029 176,533 2,050 mm 1.5x 2030 189,548 2,050 mm 2x *Revenue in CNY millions Compared to Rivian and Tesla, Nio’s price-to-sales valuation will be moderately discounted. While Nio is in solid financial standing and has a premium brand image, it remains uncertain how much competition the company will face both in China and as it expands overseas. The company is already spending a quarter of revenues on R&D and if Nio cannot capitalize on this spend, the stock price will be sluggish compared to North American EV manufacturers. As mentioned, Wall Street analysts give Nio a one-year price target of $4.93. That represents 6.7% upside potential from the current share price. At 24/7 Wall St., we expect to see revenue growth of 60% for the year, with a price-to-sales multiple of 1x. That puts our year-end price target at $4.21, which would be a retreat of almost 9% from today’s share price. However, for 2030, we estimate Nio’s stock price to be $23.56 per share. Our estimated share price would be about 411% higher than the current one. Here is a look at our projections for the years in between: Year Price Target Upside Potential 2025 $4.21 −8.9% 2026 $6.12 32.5% 2027 $13.80 198.7% 2028 $24.01 419.7% 2029 $16.45 256.1% 2030 $23.56 410.0% Rivian Automotive Stock Price Prediction for 2025: Where Will It Be in 1 Year The post Nio (NYSE: NIO) Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030 (Aug 14) appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

The NHTSA stopped issuing paperwork needed for credits as it reassesses fuel-economy standards.

Rivian reported mixed Q2 results last week, but is seeing improving unit economics compared to last year. Gross losses per vehicle narrowed significantly, giving Rivian a cost advantage over Lucid and supporting a path toward profitability as production scales. Strong cash position ($7.5B) and new partnerships could provide growth catalysts for Rivian.