Nuveen Real Estate Income Fund (JRS)

An intriguing article came across my desk recently, and it said something we income investors need to talk about.

For nearly five decades, US REITs have delivered stronger returns than broad US stocks in the 12 months following Federal Reserve easing cycles. Rate cuts may increase the attractiveness of REIT dividends, potentially making them a compelling option for investors seeking yield potential and portfolio diversification. Data centers, telecom infrastructure, and health care REITs have historically benefited the most from lower rates due to long-duration leases and capital-intensive models.

U.S. equity markets snapped a four-week winning streak, while benchmark interest rates rose as investors parsed a surprisingly strong slate of economic data, including a two-year high for GDP growth. The Citi Economic Surprise Index has completed a volatile round-trip this month, plunging in early September ahead of the Fed rate decision before rebounding sharply in recent weeks. The recent trend has echoed patterns during the prior Fed easing in late 2024, when mid-year weakness prompted a policy pivot that was subsequently cut short by a late-year economic rebound.

U.S. equity markets notched another series of record highs this past week after the Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle following a nine-month pause and affirmed a "cautiously dovish" pivot. The Fed's decision to lower rates by a quarter point to 4.25% carried surprising unity following months of contentious political maneuvering, with all 12 members backing a rate cut. A bit unsettling for policymakers, longer-term yields rose this week, driven primarily by surprisingly solid retail sales and a dip in initial jobless claims that reversed a prior-week surge.

REITs performed very well in August (+5.48%), almost pulling the REIT sector's year-to-date total return back into the black (-1.11%). Small cap (+7.52%) and mid cap REITs (+7.13%) averaged strong gains in August while large caps (+3.16%) and micro caps (+0.87%) averaged more modest returns. 83.87% of REIT securities had a positive total return in August.

Three years of persistent rate-driven pressure on the residential and commercial real estate market appears to finally be abating - and not a moment too soon. REITs were hit by a "triple whammy" of rate-related headwinds: higher borrowing costs directly squeezed profitability, eroded the relative appeal of REIT dividends, and made it near-impossible to grow accretively. Since the Fed's initial rate hike in March 2022, REITs have lagged the S&P 500 by a whopping 55 percentage points, nearly 3x the magnitude of underperformance seen in the GFC.

U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record highs this past week after relatively benign inflation data and weak employment data cleared the path for the Fed to resume rate cuts. While CPI and PPI readings continued to show a modest reacceleration in price pressures from their post-pandemic lows earlier this year, both remained "cool enough" to permit a policy pivot. The Fed is widely expected to cut reference rates by 25 basis points to a 4.25% upper bound, which follows a nine-month "pause" since the last reduction last December.

U.S. equity markets pushed higher this past week - while short-term benchmark interest rates plunged to three-year lows - after employment data provided decisive evidence of cooling labor markets. Viewed by markets as a "Goldilocks" set of reports, the reports showed slowing - but still positive - job growth in August alongside consistent evidence of cooling wage pressures and emerging slack. A notable milestone after several years of ultra-tight labor markets, the number of job seekers surpassed the number of available job openings for the first time since April 2021.

U.S. equity markets were little-changed this past week as a tranquil end-of-summer week with status-quo inflation and economic indicators concluded with a jolting post-close tariff headline with highly uncertain implications. An appeals court ruled that the White House exceeded its authority under the Emergency Powers Act - the mechanism used for broad “reciprocal” tariffs - setting up a final Supreme Court showdown. The fresh injection of tariff uncertainty precedes a critical stretch of employment and inflation data and a mid-September Federal Reserve meeting that is increasingly likely to be highly contentious.

A surprising solid REIT earnings season wrapped up this week. Of the 100 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 62% raised their outlook - above the historical 55% average. Disinflation was a surprisingly common thread across second-quarter results, with the majority of the upside revisions being driven by improved expense expectations - the highest quantity of expense reductions ever. Healthcare REITs were notable upside standouts as senior housing fundamentals remained stellar, while skilled nursing REITs received some good news on the policy front via healthy CMS Medicare rate increases.

JRS offers an 8.9% yield and diversified real estate exposure, but struggles in the current high-interest rate environment. The fund's leverage and focus on income limit its total return potential, especially compared to alternatives like VNQ. Future interest rate cuts could boost JRS's performance, but timing is uncertain and ongoing risks remain.

Most US REITs make nearly 90% of their revenue domestically, compared to 72% for typical U.S. stocks. Healthcare, residential, and needs-based retail are less affected by trade disruptions, while office, lodging, and timber are more vulnerable. They're trading at a -2.79x earnings multiple discount to US stocks - one of the widest gaps in decades.

U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record-highs this week after a critical slate of inflation data showed that tariff-driven inflation remains muted, while rumors of a potential Powell termination swirled. Supported by data this week showing that core inflation cooled to its slowest pace in over three years, the White House reignited the heat on the head of the Fed. Rebounding from modest declines last week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.6%, notching record highs in three of the past four weeks following a five-month drought.

U.S. equity markets closed the Independence Day week at record highs after Congress approved the GOP's sweeping tax cut and spending megabill, while employment data indicated "Goldilocks" labor market trends. The Big Beautiful Bill extends and enhances key elements of the 2017 tax cuts and boosts State and Local Tax ("SALT") deductions, while overhauling eligibility requirements for government benefits programs. The real estate and homebuilding industry scored some key "wins" in the legislation, which made permanent the 20% QBI deduction for REIT dividend income and relaxed some REIT tax rules.

U.S. equity markets surged to fresh record-highs as investors cheered a confluence of positive headlines: a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East, productive trade talks, and progress on tax cuts. Oil prices tumbled after the U.S. destroyed a trio of Iranian nuclear facilities in a formidable and decisive show of force, eliciting a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Traders priced in additional rate cuts as tumbling oil prices and economic data that remains devoid of meaningful inflation prompted dovish dissents from several Fed officials.

U.S. equity markets posted a second-straight week of declines after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that it remains in "no rush" to ease its "modestly restrictive" policy stance. Raising questions on whether the Fed can continue to claim itself "data dependent," Fed Chair Powell dismissed recent economic data while doubling-down on forecasts of "meaningful" tariff-driven inflation. Benchmark interest rates ticked lower this week as traders digested the Federal Reserve's rate decision alongside a generally downbeat slate of economic data and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.