AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCN)

U.S. equity markets climbed to fresh record highs this week despite a jump in producer prices, but consumer inflation remained "cool enough" to keep the Fed on-course for September rate cuts. Despite the inflation uptick in July, all three major CPI and PPI metrics remained below the annualized levels seen in January preceding the initial wave of tariffs. Ahead of the Chair Powell's "farewell tour" in Jackson Hole, the inevitability of significantly easier monetary policy by mid-2026 - at the latest- has fully taken hold in recent weeks.

AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call July 22, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Katherine Turlington - Investor Relations Analyst Peter Federico - President, CEO & Director and Chief Investment Officer Bernice Bell - Executive VP & CFO Conference Call Participants Douglas Harter - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Crispin Love - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division Trevor Cranston - Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, Research Division Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division Jason Weaver - JonesTrading Institutional Services, LLC, Research Division Jason Stewart - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division Eric Hagen - BTIG, LLC, Research Division Richard Shane - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division Harsh Hemnani - Green Street Advisors, LLC, Research Division Operator Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp. Second Quarter 2025 Shareholder Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

U.S. equity markets retreated from record highs this week after the White House reignited its tariff offensive with a wave of aggressive levies and additional punitive threats. While inflation data has indicated that the 10% tariffs were efficiently absorbed, the pivot back towards Liberation Day tariff levels raises concern that recent deflationary offsets may be overwhelmed. After closing at record highs for two straight weeks, the S&P 500 retreated by 0.3% this past week, trading in a relatively tight trading range as investors geared up for earnings season.

US equity markets posted modest declines this past week after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and maintained its status quo "wait-and-see" approach, but acknowledged heightened inflation and labor market risks. Meanwhile, White House officials headed to Switzerland to begin high-level trade talks with China, which follows the announcement of the first major post-Liberation Day trade deal with the United Kingdom. Following its best two-week stretch since late 2022, the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% this week - extending its drawdown to around 8% from its mid-February record highs.

AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC ) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 22, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Katherine Turlington - IR Peter Federico - Director, President and CEO Bernice Bell - EVP and CFO Christopher Kuehl - EVP and Chief Investment Officer Conference Call Participants Bose George - KBW Crispin Love - Piper Sandler Doug Harter - UBS Trevor Cranston - JMP Securities Matthew Erdner - JonesTrading Jason Stewart - Janney Montgomery Scott Eric Hagen - BTIG Rick Shane - JPMorgan Harsh Hemnani - Green Streets Operator Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp. First Quarter 2025 Shareholder Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode.

US equity markets steadied this past week while bond markets rallied as investors parsed a surprisingly solid slate of economic data and a decent start to corporate earnings season. Early week gains were pared following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs and the reluctance of the Fed to step in to support markets. The hawkish comments sparked a series of blistering critiques by President Trump, accusing the Fed Chair of "playing politics" and posting that his "termination cannot come fast enough."

We live in a very challenging environment. Many REITs are facing severe headwinds. Don't buy just anything. Here are some of the worst REITs to buy today.

AGNC's focus on agency securities largely isolates it from weakness in U.S. economic growth. Preferred dividends were well covered in 2024, with book values likely to rise in Q1 2025. The Series C shares offer an attractive value proposition marginally below par value, allowing investors to achieve a long-term return close to 8%.

Floating rate preferreds, initially created in a zero interest rate environment, now yield around 10% due to the timing phenomenon and changes in interest rates. Key factors for analysis include company stability, size of preferred issue relative to common equity, discount/premium to par value, and adjustment above SOFR. Risks include rapid yield curve fluctuations and potential Fed rate cuts, which could lower SOFR and subsequently reduce yields on floating rate preferreds.

Ahead of the April 2nd tariff unveiling, US equity markets were under renewed pressure this week on downbeat data showing a further dip in consumer confidence and hotter-than-expected PCE inflation. As a turbulent first quarter wraps up, the updated GDPNow - the Atlanta Fed's closely watched GDP tracking model - forecasts growth of -2.8% overall and -0.5% on a "gold-adjusted basis." Posting weekly declines for the seventh time in the past nine weeks, the S&P 500 finished lower by 1.5% - extending its drawdown to 9.3% from its record-highs.

While the S&P 500 and other major benchmarks entered "correction territory" this month for the first time since 2023, U.S. REITs have meaningfully outperformed the broader equity market since mid-January. The rebound follows a truly forgettable three-year period for REITs dating back to the start of the Fed's rate hiking cycle in which REITs have accumulated 40 percentage-points of underperformance. REITs remain as unloved as ever: The number of publicly listed REITs declined for a fourth-straight year in 2024. As an asset class, REITs are the single-largest "underweight" among institutional investors.

US equity markets remained under pressure this week as encouraging inflation data and a deal to avoid a government shutdown were offset by further tariff escalations and weak sentiment data. Markets struggled to agree on how the FOMC will interpret the latest economic data, with recent "hard data" showing encouraging trends while "softer" survey data has painted a far-bleaker outlook. Following its worst week in six months, the S&P 500 finished lower by another 2.3% this week - its fourth-straight week of declines - which dragged the index into "correction territory."

In Part 3 of our Earnings Recap, we present a sector-by-sector breakdown of the Losers of REIT Earnings Season, discussing incremental positives/negatives and noting the individual standouts. Commercial Mortgage REITs were the "biggest loser" of REIT earnings season after results showed ongoing problems in the office space and a significant deterioration in multifamily bridge loan performance. Results from Hotel REITs were also disappointing given the record-levels of travel demand, as margin pressures from higher labor costs have taken a sizable bite out of bottom-line profitability.

US equity markets tumbled this week - suffering its worst week in six months - as disappointing employment reports and fast-shifting tariff policy failed to improve skittish investor sentiment. Reminiscent of Fed Chair Powell's infamous August 2022 "some pain ahead" speech, the Trump Administration warned of a "little disturbance" and a necessary "detox period" for the U.S. economy. Softer-than-expected employment data this week fueled doubts that sweeping overhauls to trade policy and fiscal spending can be accomplished without risking a recession.

US equity markets slumped this week - while benchmark interest rates tumbled to two-month lows - after downbeat economic data and cautious corporate commentary sparked concern over slowing economic growth. Compounded by some unsettling COVID-related headlines late in the week, investors adopted a more "risk off" position after consumer and business survey data picked up a sudden negative sentiment shift. After notching a pair of record-highs early in the week, a two-day tumble sent the S&P 500 lower by 1.6% on the week. Small-Caps and Mid-Caps both dipped over 3%.

US equity markets flirted with fresh record-highs this week while benchmark interest rates hovered around two-month lows as investors weighed positive earnings news against uncomfortable hot inflation data. Complicating the policy outlook for the Federal Reserve, CPI data showed the fastest monthly rise in consumer prices since August, prompting a pledge from Powell for "more work to do." Snapping a two-week losing streak, the S&P 500 rebounded by 1.5%, closing fractionally below its prior record-high set in late January. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rallied nearly 3%.